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巴菲特在熊市投資的4條準則是什么?

  After 11 years,the bears are finally coming out of hibernation.

  11年后,熊終于從冬眠中醒來。

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 8%on Thursday morning,officially entering a bear market,which is defined as a decline of 20%or more from a recent high.Just a month ago,the Dow was at its all-time peak.

  道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數周四上午下跌8%,正式進入熊市。熊市的定義是較近期高點下跌20%或更多。就在一個月前,道瓊斯指數還處于歷史最高點。

  The S&P 500 wasn't far behind,trading 24%below its record just three weeks ago,while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 19%in the same span of time.

  標準普爾500指數也緊隨其后,較三周前創下的紀錄低了24%,而以科技股為主的納斯達克指數同期下跌了19%。

  It's clear why investors are suddenly rattled.The novel coronavirus outbreak has spread from China around the world,forcing Italy into a lockdown,and disrupting daily life in the U.S.as well as much of the world.Festivals and conferences have been cancelled or put on hold,and sports fans are being told to stay home(games will be played in empty arenas).Americans are cancelling trips and working from home in order to avoid exposure to the virus.

  投資者突然驚慌失措的原因顯而易見。這種新型冠狀病毒已經從中國蔓延到世界各地,迫使意大利進入封鎖狀態,擾亂了美國和世界大部分地區的日常生活。節日和會議被取消或暫停,體育愛好者被告知呆在家里(比賽將在空曠的場地進行)。為了避免接觸病毒,美國人取消了旅行的計劃,在家工作。

  巴菲特在熊市投資的4條準則

  Warren Buffett.Image source:Motley Fool.

  Times like these can be nerve-racking for investors,who are jittery as their portfolios suddenly shrink and are wondering if an extended crash is in the offing.That's why it's an especially good time to consider the timeless wisdom of Warren Buffett,the Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)CEO who's generally regarded as the greatest investor of all-time.At 89 years old,Buffett's seen it all in his investing career,and he's been generous about doling out advice along the way.Though the Oracle of Omaha has no formal guide for how to behave during a bear market,based on his writings and investing principles,we can put together a few of his investign rules and pieces of advice that would be worth heeding at times like these.

  對投資者來說,這樣的時刻可能是傷腦筋的,投資組合突然縮水,讓他們緊張不安,他們不知道會不會出現更嚴重的崩盤。這就是為什么現在是考慮巴菲特永恒智慧的好時機。巴菲特是伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(NYSE:BRK.A)的首席執行官,他通常被認為是有史以來最偉大的投資者?,F年89歲的巴菲特在他的投資生涯中目睹了這一切,他一直慷慨地提供建議。盡管(基于他的著作和投資原則)這位“奧馬哈先知”沒有關于如何在熊市中表現的正式指南,但我們可以把他的一些調查規則和建議整合在一起,在這種時候,這些建議是值得注意的。

  1."Be greedy when others are fearful"

  1.“別人恐懼我貪婪

  Perhaps Buffett's best known quote,the wisdom of this aphorism is in its simplicity.Buffett knows the best way to invest is to zig when others zag.

  這也許是巴菲特最著名的名言,這句格言的智慧在于它的簡單。巴菲特知道最好的投資方式是在別人困難的時候快速前進。

  Now,of course,investors are probably more fearful now than they've been in a decade.There may be good reason for those fears,but a number of stocks have already lost more than half of their value,setting up potential bargains as investors are selling for near-term concerns.While the coronavirus could hammer the economy over the next few months and even lead to a recession,the long-term risk of the virus seems almost zero.Buffett is a famous cheerleader of the American economy and knows that the stock market has survived past crises including the 1919 Spanish Flu epidemic,the Great Depression,World War II,9/11,and the 2008 financial crisis among others. 紐約時報中英文網 http://www.738231.buzz

  當然,現在的投資者可能比過去10年更恐懼。這些擔憂或許有很好的理由,但在投資者出于短期擔憂而拋售之際,許多股票已經損失了一半以上的價值,這可能會帶來一些逢低買進的機會。雖然這種冠狀病毒可能會在未來幾個月里重創經濟,甚至導致經濟衰退,但這種病毒的長期風險似乎幾乎為零。巴菲特是美國經濟的著名啦啦隊長,他知道股票市場在過去的危機中幸存了下來,包括1919年的西班牙流感疫情、大蕭條、二戰、9/11和2008年的金融危機等等。

  By this time next year,events like South by Southwest and the Coachella Music Festival will be almost certainly held as normal.Americans will return to their usual routines,doing things like that they're currently hesitant to do like taking vacations and eating out.Life will eventually return to normal.

  到明年的這個時候,像South By Southwest和Coachella音樂節這樣的活動幾乎肯定會照常舉行。美國人會回到他們的日常生活中去,做一些他們現在猶豫不決的事情,比如度假和外出就餐。生活最終會恢復正常的。

  2.Keep some dry powder ready

  2.持有現金

  In recent years,Buffett has lamented the high valuations of stocks and privately held companies and told investors he's been unable to find well-priced companies worth buying.Berkshire's last major acquisition came in 2015 with its$32 billion purchase of Precision Castparts.

  近年來,巴菲特一直對股票和私人持股公司的高估值感到遺憾,并對投資者說,他一直找不到價格合理、值得買進的公司。2015年,伯克希爾哈撒韋公司以320億美元收購了精密鑄件公司。

  As a result,Berkshire is now sitting on roughly$125 billion in cash and short-term investments that can be readily deployed as bargains emerge on the market.You can't be greedy when others are fearful,after all,if you don't have any money to invest.Buffett capitalized similarly during the financial crisis when he had about$38 billion in cash and made big,well-timed investments in Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.During September and October of 2008,he made$15 billion in investments.

  因此,伯克希爾目前坐擁約1,250億美元的現金和短期投資,這些資金可以在市場上出現便宜貨時隨時使用。畢竟,如果你沒有錢去投資,別人害怕的時候你也不會貪婪。巴菲特在金融危機期間也進行了類似的投資,當時他擁有約380億美元現金,并在恰當的時機大舉投資高盛和美國銀行。在2008年9月和10月期間,他投資了150億美元。

  The Oracle of Omaha also likes to say,"Only when the tide goes do you see who's swimming naked."With more than$100 billion in cash to work with,you can be assured Buffett will never be caught investing with his pants down.

  這位奧馬哈先知還喜歡說:“只有當潮水退去,你才會知道誰在裸泳。”有超過1000億美元的現金可以使用,你可以放心,巴菲特永遠不會被抓到裸泳。

紐約時報中英文網 http://www.738231.buzz

  3.Invest for the long term

  3.做長線投資

  Another well-known Buffett quote is,"Our favorite holding period is forever."Buffett thinks of owning stocks as owning businesses.He's not interested in trading paper to make a quick buck.He's looking for lasting companies that will grow over decades,compounding their returns.

  巴菲特的另一句名言是:“我們最喜歡的持有期限是永遠。”巴菲特認為擁有股票就像擁有企業一樣。他對交易票據來賺快錢不感興趣。他在尋找能夠持續發展幾十年的公司,增加他們的回報。

  In a bear market,investors need to think similarly.One rule of thumb with buying stocks is not to invest any money that you plan to use in the next ten years.That's because a shock like the coronavirus can wipe out short-term gains,but over the long term the stock market has demonstrated an unmatched ability to deliver meaningful capital appreciation.Historically,the S&P 500 has returned about 10%annually,and that includes several bear markets,recessions,and other crises and black swan events.

  在熊市中,投資者也需要這樣想。購買股票的一個經驗法則是,不要把你計劃在未來10年里使用的錢拿去投資。這是因為像冠狀病毒這樣的沖擊可以抹去短期收益,但從長期來看,股市表現出了無與倫比的能力,能夠帶來有意義的資本增值。從歷史上看,標準普爾500指數的年回報率約為10%,其中包括幾次熊市、衰退和其他危機以及黑天鵝事件。

  4.Buy stocks that can withstand this kind of shock

  4.購買能夠承受這種沖擊的股票

  It's no secret what kind of stocks Buffett likes.He prefers reliably profitable companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable competitive advantages,which he calls economic moats.Buffett is a conservative value investor,and he wants stocks that will deliver predictable returns.For instance,he's long been a fan of insurance companies as Berkshire owns a number of them,including GEICO.Americans need auto insurance even in tough times,and those premiums give Berkshire a steady cash flow to invest in stocks.Buffett also likes enduring consumer brands like Coca-Cola,and more recently,Apple.Coca-Cola has been a leader in beverages for a century,not just because of its well-known brands but also because of its global distribution network.Apple,meanwhile,has built an ecosystem in consumer electronics that will be difficult to dislodge.Both companies are highly profitable.

  巴菲特喜歡什么樣的股票已經不是什么秘密了。他更喜歡可靠盈利的公司,這些公司擁有強大的資產負債表和可持續的競爭優勢,他稱之為經濟護城河。巴菲特是一個保守的價值投資者,他希望股票能夠帶來可預測的回報。比如,他長期以來一直是保險公司的擁躉,因為伯克希爾擁有很多保險公司,其中包括GEICO。美國人即使在經濟困難時期也需要汽車保險,而這些保費讓伯克希爾有了穩定的現金流來投資股票。巴菲特還喜歡可口可樂(Coca-Cola)等經久不衰的消費品牌,以及最近的蘋果。一個世紀以來,可口可樂一直是飲料行業的領導者,不僅因為其知名品牌,還因為其全球分銷網絡。與此同時,蘋果在消費電子產品領域建立了一個難以撼動的生態系統。這兩家公司的利潤都很高。

  As an eternal optimist about the American economy and the stock market,Buffett would likely remind investors that for net buyers of stocks,a bear market is a good thing as stocks become cheaper.Though it can be scary to see your investments in freefall,especially amid the broader uncertainty and health scare around the coronavirus,it's worth remembering Buffett's thoughts on the current situation.

  作為一個對美國經濟和股市永遠樂觀的人,巴菲特可能會提醒投資者,對于股票的凈買家來說,熊市是一件好事,因為股票變得更便宜了。雖然看到自己的投資一落千丈可能會讓人感到害怕,尤其是身處冠狀病毒的不確定性和健康恐慌的大環境下,但值得記住巴菲特對當前形勢的看法。

  In a recent CNBC interview,the Berkshire chief said,"The real question is:Has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?"Despite the uncertainty around the coronavirus,Buffett,like most investors out there I think,would answer with resounding"no".

  在最近接受CNBC采訪時,這位伯克希爾哈撒韋的首席執行官表示:“真正的問題是:美國企業10年或20年的前景在過去24小時或48小時內發生了變化嗎?”盡管冠狀病毒存在不確定性,但我認為,巴菲特和大多數投資者一樣,會響亮地回答“不”。

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